There is increasing optimism that the housing market will have a dramatic recovery in the next two years.  The prediction by the economists is that the national average for home prices will STOP FALLING by this year and a subsequent turnaround will occur. Further, they predict home prices WILL BEGIN TO RISE by 2 percent in 2013. And in 2014 there will be a larger boost of 3.5 percent increase in home prices. They also are predicting housing starts to double by next year. Finally, they are predicting rental prices to continue to increase for all property types ranging from 0.8 percent to almost 5 percent.

Like any predictions, these economists have assumption underlying their analyses…one is that the economy will continue to strengthen and there will be a larger drop in unemployment.

According to ULI CEO Patrick L. Philips ” While geopolitical and global economic events could change the forecast going forward, what we see in this survey is confidence that the U.S. real estate economy has weathered the brunt of the recent financial storm and is poised for significant improvement over the next three years. These results hold much promise for the real estate industry.”

California home prices down due to distressed properties
California home sales declined from both the prior month and year in January, according to data from the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.).  The median price also was lower, primarily due to a sales increase in the distressed market.

Making sense of the story

• Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 517,740 in January, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide.
• January’s sales were down 0.6 percent from December’s 520,940 pace and down 5.7 percent from the revised 548,760 sales pace recorded in January 2011.  The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2012 if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year.  It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
• The statewide median price of an existing, single-family detached home fell to $268,280 in January, down 6.7 percent from $285,920 in December.  The median price also dropped 3.9 percent from the revised $279,220 median price recorded in January 2011.
• “The decline in the January median home is largely a reflection of an increase in the share of distressed home sales,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Seasonal factors in the non-distressed market also played a role in the softening of the median home price, as prices typically decline in the non-peak home buying season.”
• California’s housing inventory rose in January, with the Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes increasing to 5.5 months in January, up from 4.1 months in December but down from the 6.8-month supply in January 2011.  The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate

In Freddie Mac’s results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, the average mortgage rates dropped to new all-time record lows as data on economic growth fell short of market projections. All products in the PMMS survey, except the 1-Year ARM, averaged new lows. 

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.87 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending February 2, 2012, down from last week when it averaged 3.98 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.81 percent. 
• 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.14 percent with an average 0.8 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.24 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.08 percent. 
• 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.80 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.85 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.69 percent.
• 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.76 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.74 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.26 percent.  

This is the best time to purchase a house with interest rates at historic lows. What are you waiting for?

According to CNN Money:  This mortgage deal could bring billions in relief. On Thursday, federal and state officials announced a $26 billion foreclosure settlement with five of the largest home lenders. California is expected to receive approximately $12 billion in principal write-downs, including through short sales, over the next three years, according to the state attorney general’s office. Here are the important points:

1) The deal settles potential state charges about allegations of improper foreclosures based on robo-signing, seizures made without proper paperwork.

2) The settlement sets up a federal monitor to oversee the process and try to prevent the challenges that tripped up many homeowners seeking help in earlier programs designed to address the housing crisis.

3) Most of the relief will go to those who are underwater on their homes. That relief will come over the course of the next three years, with banks having incentives to provide most of the relief in the next 12 months.

4) At least $17 billion will go to reducing the principal owed by homeowners who are underwater and behind on their mortgages.

5) Up to 750,000 other underwater homeowners who are current on their mortgages will be able to refinance their current loans at lower rates. They will not receive a reduction in principal, but with mortgage rates near record lows, they could receive substantial savings on their monthly payments.

6) Approximately $1.5 billion will go to homeowners who had their homes foreclosed upon between Jan. 1, 2008 and Dec. 31, 2011, and who meet other criteria. They will receive up to $2,000 each.

7) The five mortgage servicers that are parties to the settlement include Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Ally Financial (formerly GMAC).

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